Philosophical Theories of Probability 

In Fall 2016, as a freshman, I presented a chapter from Feynman’s Lectures on Physics to freshman physics students at Sharif University. This was part of a series of weekly meetings organized by the student scientific organization. The chapter briefly discussed various interpretations of probability. As a freshman with limited experience, I found myself quite puzzled after reading it. How could we apply the same concept of probability, used in meteorology, to phenomena like radioactive decay?

Years later (in Winter 2020), after studying probability as a mathematical subject, I encountered Donald Gillies’s book, Philosophical Theories of Probability. This book offers a concise chronological overview of the philosophical interpretations of probability and provided some answers I had been seeking since that Feynman lecture. I believe this book is essential for anyone working with probability who is not a philosopher.

Gillies introduces the classical, subjective, frequency, and propensity theories of probability and concludes with a chapter on the intersubjective approach, which he himself developed. He argues that different philosophical interpretations of probability are employed—or should be employed—depending on the context, such as various scientific fields.

2 responses to “Philosophical Theories of Probability ”

  1.  Avatar
    Anonymous

    A Logical Introduction to Probability and inductive logic by franz huber is very comprehensive as well. Also, among philosophers working on probability, Ian Hacking might have a lot to say. (He recently died though)

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    1. Behrad Moniri Avatar

      Thanks for introducing the work by Huber. I was not aware of that. Seems to be very comprehensive — will certainly check it out more carefully!

      I have read a book by Hacking called “The emergence of probability” which I found quite fascinating — but that’s mostly on the history of probability and not its philosophy. On the philosophy side, I did start to read his “Logic of statistical inference” but it was a bit elementary. Any suggestions for a good book by him on the subject?

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